This Year’s Everest Barrier Draw Had a Hidden Twist
In a bold move, the ATC introduced a one-of-a-kind barrier draw for this year’s Everest. With 12 runners, each jockey had six chances to find their own saddlecloth number hidden in one of 12 sealed boxes. After each jockey had a go, all boxes were closed again—so no one could learn what any other jockey had uncovered.
Here’s the kicker:
- If all 12 jockeys succeeded, each received a $10,000 bonus and the barrier draw matched the saddlecloth numbers.
- If even one jockey failed, the club reverted to the original random draw—and no one received a prize.
That meant the ATC was potentially paying out $120,000… or nothing.
So What Were the Odds?
Assuming every jockey picked randomly, the chance of all 12 succeeding was just 1 in 4,096—a measly 0.024%. To cover their risk, the ATC considered reinsuring the payout with a bookie and estimated the premium to be around $30 (i.e., $120,000 ÷ 4,096).
But the bookie—an ex-actuary—had a surprise:
“If the jockeys follow a smart strategy, their success rate jumps to around 34%.”
Wait, What?
That’s not a typo. From 0.024% to 34%—an improvement of over 1,400×.
The secret? A simple but counterintuitive strategy where each jockey opens the box with their own saddlecloth number first, then follows a chain of numbers. No guesswork, no collusion—just logic.
Want to see how it works? You can run the simulation yourself and try to beat the odds:
It’s a brilliant example of how a bit of strategy can flip the odds in your favour.