Today (15th June 2019) there is a World Cup cricket game between the Aussies and Sri Lanka. The games is being played in London, England. Play starts at 10:30 am (Local time) and will take about 3.5 hours per innings plus a 40 minute break. Let’s say 8 hours all up.
The weather forecast (from Accuweather) predicts a 57% chance of rain some time today :
But when you look at their hour by hour rain forecasts they show :
So if we know the chance of rain in each hour in the 8 hour period then we can work out the chance of NO RAIN for each hour. Do the maths (multiply the 8 NO RAIN probabilities together) and it shows a less than 1% chance of NO RAIN in this 8 hour period.
This means there is a 99.7% of SOME RAIN during the game .
Perhaps I don’t understand what Accuweather mean by their hourly precipitation forecasts but if I could get on at 1.75 (aka $75 profit on a $100 bet) for RAIN AT SOME STAGE IN THE MATCH then I would be very pleased 🙂