Boxing vs Dutching – Caulfield 29th April 2017

CAULFIELD QUADDIE 29th April 2017 

Today I am using the tips of  Melbourne pro Trevor Lawson who posted on the  Champion Picks  website . With wet track hitting the city of Melbourne, Trevor has gone in search of wet-trackers for Saturday’s Caulfield Quaddie.

Trevor’s selections were :
1, 8, 9 / 2, 6, 8, 10 / 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 10 / 9, 11
$144 for 100%

However because of scratchings Trevor’s combinations were reduced to just 90.
1, 8, 9 / 2, 6, 10 / 1, 2, 5, 7,  10 / 9, 11
$90 for 100%

I have selected WA TAB for bet placement. It may not be known to many punters but WA TAB ( allow a minimum of 1 cent bets with an increment of 1 cent  … when betting online. This allows 50 x the precision of bet size calculations compared with NSW/VIC TAB with a 50 cent bet minimum. But on all TABs the minimum flexi bet % is still 1%.
The odds I have used in the calculation are the maximum bookie odds available at about midday Saturday.

No maximum dividend is needed as I’m using just 90 combinations.

As I’m comparing a Box Quaddie with a Dutch book Quaddie no combination will be excluded based on price.

Box Quaddie VS Dutch book Quaddie

Based on bookie win odds, the 90 combinations have an estimated dividend range between $100 and $3000. That means if you took a Box Quaddie for $90 your payback would be something between this range. But using my Quaddie calculator and betting each combination according to its estimated dividend the payout, no matter which combination is successful,  will be about $460 (actually the estimated range is between $450 and $475)

Below is a snapshot of my Quaddie calculator worksheet and the list of the 90 bets can be found in this text file >>> Quaddie_Trevor29Apr

Hopefully Trevor’s selections will salute and we can compare the profit from the 2 different strategies.

Caulfield Quaddie 29Apr2017

Footnote :  Trevor got up the first 3 legs but missed the winner in the last leg.


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