When it comes to ranking Australia’s jockeys, most punters start with the strike rate – how often a jockey wins relative to their total rides. But of course, the top jockeys ride the top horses, and top horses = shorter odds = inflated strike rates. Trainers and owners want elite riders on their best chances, so the cream naturally rises to the top.
Over the last two years, on pure strike rate alone, Willy Pike and James McDonald (J-Mac) sit on top at around 25% – one win every four rides. But here’s the real question:
Are the top jockeys genuinely better riders … or just beneficiaries of better horses?
That’s the puzzle. Let’s dig deeper.
The Big Picture
Using my newly developed ANCR database (powered by Power BI Desktop), I analysed every horse and rider across Australasian races from June 2023 to September 2025.
That’s 40,636 races, 399,751 starts, and 46,695 individual horses – roughly ten runners per race, giving an average baseline strike rate of 10%. A massive, balanced dataset ideal for assessing performance beyond reputation.
Method – Compare Like-for-Like
For each jockey, I grouped the horses they rode and compared how those same horses performed under other riders. This isolates the jockey’s influence from horse quality.
Take J-Mac for example:
- 1,008 rides across 595 horses
- His strike rate: 24.6%
- Other jockeys on the same horses: 15.2%
That gives J-Mac a Strike Rate Differential (SRD) of +9.4% — a clean measure of added value.
The Standouts
The data confirms what the eye test already tells us — Willy Pike is still the benchmark. His strike rate on his mounts is 25.5%, while other riders on those same horses manage just 12.6%. That’s a massive +12.9% SRD — dominance in anyone’s language.
Surprise packet Clayton Gallagher also posts a double-digit SRD, showing he’s not just along for the ride — he’s improving his mounts.
When the Field Narrows
When comparing only horses that are already ridden by multiple top-tier jockeys, the SRD gap compresses. In other words, when every rider is elite, the marginal gains shrink — an important insight for pricing form and betting value.
What It Means for Punters
- Elite jockeys add measurable value — SRD quantifies it clearly.
- But the market often prices that in — so be cautious chasing the obvious names.
- Look for mid-tier riders with strong SRDs before the market catches on.