Is Michelle Payne suffering from Post Melbourne cup Syndrome ?

Michelle had an extreme amount of hype associated with her winning the Melbourne Cup on 3 November 2015, riding Prince of Penzance, a six-year-old gelding with which she had a long-term association. Payne said she was “floating on the cloud and it’s a nice feeling”.

But how does Michelle make the punters feel who back her mounts ?


Before I start should mention that punters who use the TopT3 product (the most popular Corporate bookmaker product where punters gets the best of NSW, VIC and QLD totalisator dividends ) will lose on the average 9% on turnover.

So when comparing the relative performance of jockeys I use the -9% benchmark.

During the period August 2014 until spring of 2015 Michelle TopT3 performance was -23% with a 11% strike rate.










But then during the spring of 2015 Michelle had her 15 minutes of fame (actually a bit under 5 minutes) by winning the Melbourne cup on Prince of Penzance. Michelle was excited, the media was excited, everyone was excited that a female jockey had achieved something that no female had done before … riding a Melbourne cup winner !


The name Michelle Payne was etched in the minds of rank-and-file punters forever and whenever she had a subsequent race ride the focus was on Michelle rather than the horse she was riding.  Michelle was invited to the opening of everything (bar an envelope) and attracted incredible media attention. Unfortunately her race riding took a back seat and her strike rate dropped down to 7%.

But even worse for punters the loss on their bets plummeted to -40%


It’s not that Michelle is any better or worse as a jockey for winning the Melbourne Cup … it is just that Joe Public has reacted to Michelle 15 minute of fame and tends to overbet her mounts and as a result the dividends are less.

So whilst Michelle is not necessarily suffering from PMS, the pockets of some punters are !

Result of Eagle Farm Quaddie

With 2 longshots and 1 fav , coming into the last leg it didn’t matter who won the last leg (except for #17 Sister Patti which I didn’t include) as a very nice profit was to be made.
As it turned out #2 won and the divy a massive $41,553
Whilst this was the 2nd worst result , it was still very good result indeed.

Approx Divy calculation for all live runners

Result WA04.02.17 BR5H

WA TAB Results page

WA Divyt WA04.02.17 BR5H


Today I am taking all runners with bookie odds of 50/1 or less. The odds I have used are the maximum bookie odds available about 20 mins before the start of the first leg. My strategy today is to top-n-tail the combos based on their estimated dividend … and hope that a big divvy occurs !

I have selected WA TAB for bet placement. It may not be known to many punters but WA TAB  ( allows  1 cent bets (with an increment of 1 cent)  … when betting online. This allows 50 x the precision of bet size calculations compared with NSW/VIC TAB with a 50 cent bet minimum. But on all TABs the minimum flexi bet % is still 1%.

The estimated pool is about  $200k so I have used a max divvy of $400k. Any winning divvy above that figure will most likely pay unders on the TAB because of the pool size.

In general, favourite combos on a Quaddie are drastically overbet and so I have played a minimum divvy of $2,000. Punting is all about the odds and if you get unders on your winning bets then you will lose in the long term.

The usual take-out on the Quaddie is 20% and this will apply today. This is another reason why I have had to top-n-tail my bets.

Below I have shown a snapshot of the Excel calculator I use to determine the various bets. There are 10,711  combinations that have been reduced into 2,744 flexi-bets (there are over 19k possible combos in total).  I have outlaid $124.00 and have a better than 50% chance of a collect. Here’s hoping that a couple of longshots lob.  

Good luck if you are taking a Quaddie and I hope my approach helps you to improve your  punting profit.

Quaddie WA04.02.17 BR5H

Download all Quaddie bets details >>>  Quaddie WA04.02.17 BR5H (Excel spreadsheet)

What was the result ? 


ROSEHILL QUADDIE 28 January 2017

ROSEHILL  QUADDIE  Races 6-9 on 28 January  2017 

    today I am using Monty Top 5 Picks in each of the legs. However due to scratchings  in a race 7 (the second leg) I have put into alternate selections of my own choosing. These are 01 OLYMPIC ACADEMY and 03 VASSAL.
    there is a jackpot of $100,000 going into this Quaddie from NSW TAB so there is no need to reduce any bets because of a maximum dividend restriction.
    no doubt there will be a number of favourite combinations that will be over bet especially because of the jackpot component.  However professionals tend to target these races and end up smoothing out the over bet combinations as they look for value elsewhere.
    the usual take-out on the Quaddie is 20%. However with a jackpot of $100,000 this margin will be greatly decreased. Hence it’s a good betting Quaddie.

Below I have shown a snapshot of the Excel calculator I use to determine the various bets. There are 625 combinations that have been reduced into 81 flexi-bets. The odds I have used in the calculation have been Monty’s odds and not the market odds. Therefore I will make more money if Monty’s odds are less than the final market odds … and of course vice versa.

Good luck if you are taking a Quaddie and I hope my approach helps you to improve your  punting profit.

Rosehill Quaddie 28Jan2017

Download all Quaddie bets details  >>>  Quaddie NSWSR-QL (Excel spreadsheet)