Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?

With the advent of Betfair and off-course Corporate Bookies offering all sorts of betting products  the pricing of horses by the time race starts  is so much more accurate than what it was 20 years ago. So does this mean that the best odds available on a horse is much closer to the real price that the horse should be ? In other words does Favourite-Longshot Bias still exist ?

Well I have just done an analysis of the last half million horse starts run in Australasia since 2014 and have published the results on the E.P.I. website.  To find out the answer to this age old question … plus be able to ask and answer your own FLB queries (e.g. do provincial races show the same level of bias as metropolitan races) then just register (its FREE) and go for it !

 

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5 Responses to Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?

  1. jfc says:

    I roll my own data, software and analysis, and don’t pay for anything, but this looks like the most useful (currently) free product around for the overwhelming majority who depend on 3rd party stuff.

    So I’m stunned at the evident lack of interest from those who need this most.

    Anyway I was able to pick up some very useful strategy ideas after trying a few queries.

    But I’ve also found some problems.

    e.g. Jockeys at Eagle Farm with 51+ Runs identifies Leith_Innes as the most profitable.

    Trouble is that unknown has only had 2 rides there.

    Is there some facility here for questions and problem reporting?

    • Nick Aubrey says:

      Hi JFC thanks for your kind words. Yes there is a facility to ask questions and report problems … and you have found it :-)
      I tried to emulate your issue but couldn’t. I think you may have accidentally not clear one of the filters / slicers but I’m not too sure. Can you send me more details. I have just done a post of Leith_Innes’ performance
      Leith Innes stats
      Is this what you see ?

      • Nick Aubrey says:

        Agh yes Ive just discovered the issue. Leith has had just 2 runs at Eagle Farm and his A2E stats is better than any jockey FOR THEIR EAGLE FARM rides. Leith’s jockey category of 200 + rides is in respect of ALL of his rides. Not just the 2 at Eagle Farm. Sorry its a bit confusing :-(

        Race Date Distance RN Rnrs State Status Start Time Track TN Runner Name Bar. Pos. NSW VIC QLD Best Odds Best Bookie Trainer
        11-Jun-16 1200 1 15 QLD 10:50 AM Eagle Farm 15 Lady Solerno 2 13 180.9 148.3 121.5 251 Bet365 Leith_Innes R L Cameron
        11-Jun-16 2400 10 18 QLD 4:20 PM Eagle Farm 19 Provocative 16 1 7.5 7.4 7.1 8.5 CrownBet Leith_Innes A W Pike

  2. jfc says:

    By exporting the data to a spreadsheet the Jockeys with fewer than 51 runs can be filtered out.

    Thus solving my original query.

    I imagine there might be some discomfort among any members of the Damian_Browne Fan Club who saw this.

    Jockey Runs Wins A2E NSW A2E QLD A2E TopT3 A2E VIC Joc S/Rate
    Luke_Tarrant 106 10 25% 23% 31% 25% 9.4%
    Paul_Hammersley 103 12 11% 8% 15% 11% 11.7%
    James_Orman 160 17 6% 9% 14% 7% 10.6%
    Jeff_Lloyd 216 46 6% 5% 10% 3% 21.3%
    Larry_Cassidy 108 13 -7% -9% -2% -7% 12.0%
    Tegan_Harrison 147 13 -10% -9% -3% -7% 8.8%
    Josh_Oliver 94 10 -24% -24% -19% -23% 10.6%
    Ryan_Wiggins 96 6 -30% -30% -26% -30% 6.3%
    Robbie_Fradd 162 15 -31% -31% -28% -32% 9.3%
    Glen_Colless 100 7 -34% -35% -30% -34% 7.0%
    Tiffani_Brooker 102 6 -38% -41% -35% -38% 5.9%
    Brad_Stewart 63 4 -40% -43% -38% -42% 6.3%
    Jim_Byrne 199 20 -41% -40% -38% -41% 10.1%
    Bridget_Grylls 73 4 -45% -45% -43% -46% 5.5%
    Damian_Browne 89 7 -52% -52% -49% -51% 7.9%
    Michael_Cahill 141 5 -67% -67% -65% -66% 3.5%

  3. jfc says:

    To check whether you were using Proportional Staking I calculated my own A2E for Keagan_Latham who had 2 runs for 1 win last Saturday.

    Repeating this formula, where:

    E:E Position
    F:F NSW

    =COUNTIFS($E:$E,”1″)*100*(HARMEAN(F:F)/COUNT(F:F)-1)

    I shudder how the formatting will render, but the comparisons are:

    A2E NSW A2E QLD A2E TopT3 A2E VIC
    236% 287% 308% 292% EPI
    232% 285% 311% 300% jfc

    I suspect the small differences might be due to premature rounding on your part.

    ——————-

    RN Start Time Track Runner Name Pos. NSW VIC QLD TopT3 Best Odds Best Bookie Jockey Trainer Race Date DOW A2E NSW A2E VIC A2E QLD A2E TopT3
    232.0300752 299.8757764 284.9350649 311.2727273
    2 1:29 PM Beaumont China Gale 5 6.90 7.40 7.80 7.80 8.5 BestBookies Keagan_Latham G Waterhouse & A Bott 11-Mar-17 Sat
    4 2:44 PM Beaumont Savapinski 1 6.40 8.70 7.60 8.70 7.5 BestBookies Keagan_Latham G Waterhouse & A Bott 11-Mar-17 Sat

    ———-
    “Applied filters:
    Race Date is 11-Mar-17
    If Scr is No
    Jockey categ is Known
    Rides categ is 20 or less”

    Jockey Runs Wins A2E NSW A2E QLD A2E TopT3 A2E VIC Joc S/Rate
    Keagan_Latham 2 1 236% 287% 308% 292% 50.0%

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