With 2 longshots and 1 fav , coming into the last leg it didn’t matter who won the last leg (except for #17 Sister Patti which I didn’t include) as a very nice profit was to be made.
As it turned out #2 won and the divy a massive $41,553
Whilst this was the 2nd worst result , it was still very good result indeed.
Approx Divy calculation for all live runners
WA TAB Results page
MY SELECTIONS
Today I am taking all runners with bookie odds of 50/1 or less. The odds I have used are the maximum bookie odds available about 20 mins before the start of the first leg. My strategy today is to top-n-tail the combos based on their estimated dividend … and hope that a big divvy occurs !
THE CALCULATION
I have selected WA TAB for bet placement. It may not be known to many punters but WA TAB (www.tabtouch.com.au) allows 1 cent bets (with an increment of 1 cent) … when betting online. This allows 50 x the precision of bet size calculations compared with NSW/VIC TAB with a 50 cent bet minimum. But on all TABs the minimum flexi bet % is still 1%.
MY MAXIMUM DIVVY SELECTED
The estimated pool is about $200k so I have used a max divvy of $400k. Any winning divvy above that figure will most likely pay unders on the TAB because of the pool size.
MY MINIMUM DIVVY SELECTED
In general, favourite combos on a Quaddie are drastically overbet and so I have played a minimum divvy of $2,000. Punting is all about the odds and if you get unders on your winning bets then you will lose in the long term.
THE MARGIN AGAINST ME
The usual take-out on the Quaddie is 20% and this will apply today. This is another reason why I have had to top-n-tail my bets.
Below I have shown a snapshot of the Excel calculator I use to determine the various bets. There are 10,711 combinations that have been reduced into 2,744 flexi-bets (there are over 19k possible combos in total). I have outlaid $124.00 and have a better than 50% chance of a collect. Here’s hoping that a couple of longshots lob.
Good luck if you are taking a Quaddie and I hope my approach helps you to improve your punting profit.
Download all Quaddie bets details >>> Quaddie WA04.02.17 BR5H (Excel spreadsheet)
