Rainy with a chance of cricket

Today (15th June 2019) there is a World Cup cricket game between the Aussies and Sri Lanka. The games is being played in London, England. Play starts at 10:30 am (Local time) and will take about 3.5 hours per innings plus a 40 minute break. Let’s say 8 hours all up.

The weather forecast (from Accuweather) predicts  a 57% chance of rain some time today :

LondonRain_15June2019_4

But when you look at their hour by hour rain forecasts they show :

LondonRain_15June2019_1

So if we know the chance of rain in each hour in the 8 hour period then we can work out the chance of NO RAIN  for each hour.  Do the maths (multiply the 8 NO RAIN probabilities together) and it shows a less than 1% chance of NO RAIN  in this 8 hour period.

This means there is a 99.7% of SOME RAIN during the game .

LondonRain_15June2019_5

Perhaps I don’t understand what Accuweather mean by their hourly precipitation forecasts but if I could get on at 1.75 (aka $75  profit on a $100  bet)  for RAIN AT SOME STAGE IN THE MATCH then I would be very pleased :-)

 

 

Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply