**SANDOWN QUADDIE 27th May 2017 **

**MY SELECTIONS **

Today I am using the tips of Melbourne pro Trevor Lawson who posted on the Champion Picks website.

Trevor’s selections were :

3, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 7 / 1, 4, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 7, 11, 14

$240 for 100%

However because of scratchings Trevor’s combinations were reduced to just 192

3, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 7 / 1, 4, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 11, 14

$192 for 100%

**THE CALCULATION
**I have selected WA TAB for bet placement. It may not be known to many punters but WA TAB (tabtouch.com.au) allow a minimum of 1 cent bets with an increment of 1 cent … when betting

**online**. This allows 50 x the precision of bet size calculations compared with NSW/VIC TAB with a 50 cent bet minimum. But on all TABs the minimum flexi bet % is still 1%.

The odds I have used in the calculation were the maximum bookie odds. However because my algorithm normalises the odds to 100% it’s only the relative difference in odds between horses that makes a difference.

**MY MAXIMUM DIVVY SELECTED****
**No maximum dividend is needed as I’m using just 192 combinations.

**MY MINIMUM DIVVY SELECTED
**As I’m comparing a Box Quaddie with a Dutch book Quaddie no combination will be excluded based on price.

**Box Quaddie VS Dutch book Quaddie**

Based on bookie win odds, the 192 combinations have an **estimated dividend range between $122 and $11,656.** That means if you took a Box Quaddie for $192 your payback would be somewhere within this range. But using my Quaddie calculator and betting each combination according to its estimated dividend the **estimated return (no matter which combination wins will be about $815 (the estimated range is between $806 and $877).**

Below is a snapshot of my Quaddie calculator worksheet and the list of the 192 bets can be found in this text file >>> Quaddie_Trevor27May

Hopefully Trevor’s selections will salute and we can compare the profit from the 2 different strategies

**SO WHAT HAPPENED ?**

**Trevor’s selections were successful **with the winning combo being **10, 03, 04, 01.** This combo was 7th in order of estimated dividend . My calculator estimated its dividend to be $224 but it only paid **$168** on VIC / WA TAB (even worse on NSW paying $150.50).

**So using a box quaddie you would have outlaid $192 and got back 1 x $168 for a loss of $34****But using a dutch quaddie you would have outlaid $192 and got back 3.59 x $168 = $603 for a profit of $411**

**WHY DO THE BETS HAVE A NEGATIVE EXPECTED RETURN ?
**There is a 19% chance of getting back an average $815. There is an 81% chance of losing $192.

Doing the maths gives an Expected Return of 19% x $815 -> $155 which means an average

**loss of $37 on the outlay of $192**. This is a loss of around 20% on each $1 invested and represents the TAB take out margin. This is the margin every punter has to overcome to make a profit.

Of course punters punt in the expectation that their bets will win more frequently than expected based on the market odds. And that is when profits will emerge.